AIG

What AIG's Earnings Track Record Says About Price Behavior

AIG has beaten earnings estimates in six of the last eight reported quarters, a 75% beat rate, with an average earnings surprise of 8.8%. That tells us the company has consistently delivered headline results above the consensus number. But the stock price reaction has not always matched the beat. Across the same eight quarters, the average five-day post-earnings drift is 0.99% to the upside. In the four most recent reports, AIG beat every time, yet the next-day move was negative in two cases. On November 4, 2025, AIG beat by 27.9% but the stock fell 5.44% the next day and 5.65% over the following five sessions. On February 10, 2026, a smaller 3.2% beat still produced a 4.59% next-day gain and a 6.39% five-day gain. The takeaway is that the headline result is only one input; the price response depends on guidance, macro context, sector rotation, and how much the beat was already priced in.

Options-Flow Dynamics into the August 6 Print

AIG's next scheduled report is August 6, 2026 after the close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.92. At the current price of $78.58, the stock sits just above its 50-day EMA of $77.73 and an RSI of 50.4, suggesting neutral near-term momentum heading into the event. Options flow around an earnings print usually reflects two competing forces: pre-event premium expansion, as traders pay up for upside calls or downside puts, and a post-event volatility crush, when implied volatility collapses and erodes option prices. If open interest in the closest weekly expiration clusters around $78 or $80, dealer gamma-hedging flows can either accelerate a directional move or pin the stock near a high-gamma strike once the report is out. Flow watchers also compare call versus put net premium and unusual volume relative to open interest to see whether positioning is already stretched to one side.

A Checklist for Disciplined Traders

A disciplined trader starts with the hard numbers: a 75% beat rate, an 8.8% average surprise, and a 0.99% average five-day post-earnings drift. He or she also recognizes that the last four beats produced next-day swings ranging from +5.31% on April 30, 2026 to -5.44% on November 4, 2025. Risk sizing should therefore plan for single-day moves of roughly that magnitude, not for a guaranteed direction. Watch how price interacts with the $77.73 50-day EMA and the $78.58 level before the report. Monitor options open interest at nearby strikes, changes in implied volatility, and whether the $1.92 consensus hurdle is paired with management commentary on loss costs, reserves, or capital return. The setup is a framework for measuring risk, not a prediction of the outcome.

For a deeper, broker-by-broker perspective on AIG heading into the August 6 print, review the full institutional verdict on our platform.